What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam's new sea lock

Earlier this year, Wieke Pot published the first paper of her PhD on forward-looking decisions on water infrastructure. Decisions on water infrastructure are long term decisions and often involve significant policy investments. But are these decisions necessarily forward-looking? In this paper, the concept of forward-looking decisions is proposed: decisions that anticipate and account for uncertain futures. The value of the framework is demonstrated in an analysis of decisions about a new sea lock at IJmuiden in the Netherlands.

What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam's new sea lock

Abstract: Long-term investments challenge decision makers to look into the far future. Existing future studies often build upon a rational idea of decision making that does not help to explain why decision makers anticipate the future. In addition, existing studies do not provide a clear definition of what is considered as “forward looking”. This article proposes a framework that can be used to evaluate and explain for what reasons and based on what criteria decision makers take forward-looking investment decisions. We apply this framework to a specific decision-making case about a Dutch sea lock, making use of interviews (n = 16) and a content analysis of primary documents (n = 430). We find that not all investment decisions are necessarily forward looking. Secondly, we conclude from our case that decisions became forward looking because administrators used scenarios, visions, and flexible solutions to build support, avoid political risks and comply to formal rules. Scenario developers and urban planners could therefore involve administrators in early stages of the decision-making process to increase their awareness of the future towards which they are steering and provide them with alternative future paths. Furthermore, they could identify and use relevant institutional rules with forward-looking features to stimulate forward-looking decisions.

The article is available (open access) at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.01.031

Pot, W. D., Dewulf, A., Biesbroek, G. R., Vlist, M. J. van der, & Termeer, C. J. A. M. (2018). What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam’s new sea lock. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 132(January), 174–190.