A small wins framework to overcome the evaluation paradox of governing wicked problems

Over the summer our paper on small wins appeared on-line in the journal Policy and Society. Led by Katrien Termeer, and funded by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, we are currently conducting an empirical study of the role of small wins in the governance of the transition towards a circular economy, so watch out for more!

A small wins framework to overcome the evaluation paradox of governing wicked problems

Katrien Termeer & Art Dewulf
Policy and Society

Abstract: The evaluation of policy strategies to tackle wicked policy problems inevitably involves a paradox of trying to judge solutions for problems that have no solutions and for which additional efforts might increase the chances of finding better responses. This paper analyzes how the concept of small wins can contribute to evaluating progress in wicked problem areas in a way that energizes a variety of stakeholders instead of paralyzing them and embraces complexity instead of reverting to taming and overestimation. It presents a small wins evaluation framework that is rooted in the underlying policy perspective of making progress through accumulating small wins. It comprises three steps: 1) identifying and valuing small wins; 2) analyzing whether the right propelling mechanisms are activated so as to accumulate into transformative change; 3) organizing that results feed back into the policy process to activate new small wins. This framework will inevitably clash with unrealistic expectations of addressing wicked problems rapidly, radically and comprehensively.

The paper is available open access at: https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2018.1497933

What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam's new sea lock

Earlier this year, Wieke Pot published the first paper of her PhD on forward-looking decisions on water infrastructure. Decisions on water infrastructure are long term decisions and often involve significant policy investments. But are these decisions necessarily forward-looking? In this paper, the concept of forward-looking decisions is proposed: decisions that anticipate and account for uncertain futures. The value of the framework is demonstrated in an analysis of decisions about a new sea lock at IJmuiden in the Netherlands.

What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam's new sea lock

Abstract: Long-term investments challenge decision makers to look into the far future. Existing future studies often build upon a rational idea of decision making that does not help to explain why decision makers anticipate the future. In addition, existing studies do not provide a clear definition of what is considered as “forward looking”. This article proposes a framework that can be used to evaluate and explain for what reasons and based on what criteria decision makers take forward-looking investment decisions. We apply this framework to a specific decision-making case about a Dutch sea lock, making use of interviews (n = 16) and a content analysis of primary documents (n = 430). We find that not all investment decisions are necessarily forward looking. Secondly, we conclude from our case that decisions became forward looking because administrators used scenarios, visions, and flexible solutions to build support, avoid political risks and comply to formal rules. Scenario developers and urban planners could therefore involve administrators in early stages of the decision-making process to increase their awareness of the future towards which they are steering and provide them with alternative future paths. Furthermore, they could identify and use relevant institutional rules with forward-looking features to stimulate forward-looking decisions.

The article is available (open access) at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.01.031

Pot, W. D., Dewulf, A., Biesbroek, G. R., Vlist, M. J. van der, & Termeer, C. J. A. M. (2018). What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam’s new sea lock. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 132(January), 174–190.