Uncertainties in climate change projections and water management

The interdisciplinary paper on "Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water resources management" has been accepted and published in the open access journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. This is the full reference:

Buytaert, W., Vuille, M., Dewulf, A., Urrutia, R., Karmalkar, A., and Célleri, R.: Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water resources management, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 1247-1258, doi:10.5194/hess-14-1247-2010, 2010.

The paper can be downloaded here. My contribution focuses on the possibilities of adaptive (rather than "predict-and-control") approaches in the face of severe uncertainties about future scenarios.

The cooperation with Wouter Buytaert (now at Imperial College in London) has also recently resulted in a research grant from the UK Natural Environment Research Council for a project entitled "Towards a virtual observatory for ecosystem services and poverty alleviation", as part of the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme. Guided by three diverse case studies in the Andes and the Amazon basin, we will develop techniques and methods for the identification of priority issues and beneficiaries, communication of model simulations, and integrating local managers' knowledge and practice in modelling systems.